The Trump effect is a speculative bubble, and as with all bubbles, it will finally burst when investors realise that the new President is unable to keep his promises. Until now, the most visible immediate effect of his victory has been the rise in interest rates (+50 basis points on US 10-year bond yield since November 8th). Investors have already anticipated that Trump's economic policy will be inflationist. However, market complacency is unjustified in view of the protectionist policies reaffirmed by the new President in his inaugural speech ("We must protect our borders from the ravages of other countries making our products, stealing our companies and destroying our jobs"..."Buy American and hire American"). The return to reality could well be brutal for investors, as within a globalised world, protectionism will be economically costly for a country putting it into practice on a large scale.