Currencies

Dollar buoyed by hawkish Fed

Euro ended the week on a lower note as data from Eurozone i.e. consumer confidence, Manufacturing PMI, Services PMI and Core came in below expectations and as anticipation over the future rate hikes from the Fed began to gain in credence. Eurozones annual inflation rate came in at 1.3% in January 2018, down from 1.4% in December 2017, which prompted Eur/usd to shed further ground. In the coming week, ECB President Draghi is supposed to testify before European Parliament Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee on Monday and also the new Fed Chief Powell is set to testify which would also give indication on the future plans of ECB. Moreover, the dollar remains supported as markets continue to price in the odds of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates four times over the course of 2018. With US GDP around the corner and increased expectation of rate hike, euro will take take a breather.

Currencies

Potential bottoming out of the pair

 It could be a potential bottom for the pair after 6 straight days lower that saw the AUD/USD pair move from the 200 days MA at 0.7812 to the low of 0.7532 hit on 27th April 2018. The AUD/USD traded to the lowest level since December 12, 2017. That low on the daily chart, bottomed at the 0.7530 which was a familiar swing level from November and December 2017. At that time, the price fell and stalled at 0.7535 and 0.7531. It broke and tried to stay below in December but that break failed after three days and it took more than 5 months to reach that level once again. The Australian dollar can be a good buy from these levels.

Currencies

Govt. shutdown to slide dollar lower

EUR/USD notched up to its fifth-straight weekly win, and ended the week at 1.2225, despite attempts by the European Central Bank (ECB) officials’ to supress investor expectations that the central bank would announce plans to slow down its massive stimulus programme at next week’s meeting. Moreover, we could again see the dollar being offered in the coming week, given the US Government shutdown further supporting rally in the pair. Investors would keenly eye the ECB rate announcement and press conference in the week ahead, to gain more clues about the ECB stimulus programme. The uptrend for the EUR/USD is very much intact, and it has clearly broken the resistance at 1.2089 on the weekly chart.

Currencies

EUR/USD breaks out

Initially, Euro began the weak consolidating, but ended up breaking through some major resistances and trying to make new highs. The trigger for the spike, came after the release of the December ECB meeting minutes, which showed that policymakers expressed confidence in the manner in which the Eurozone economy was moving and could consider a gradual shift in policy relatively soon. Moreover, news that the German Chancellor, Angela Merkel, may have paved the way to a stable coalition government, along with the US economy missing non-economic numbers over the last few days pushed the pair through the 1.21 levels and it ended the week just above the 1.22 region.

Currencies

Pair near strong weekly resistance

EUR/USD pair has been rallying extensively over the past few weeks, and even the aggressive comeback by US dollar didn’t seem to reflect much in this pair as it did in other currency pairs. However, that seems to be in corrected in the week ahead, as the pair is in close ranges to a 2008 trend line resistance. On the US front, the US economy added 200K jobs in January and more importantly, saw wages rise by 2.9% y/y, in what seems like a more sustainable acceleration in pay. This sent the dollar higher after a week that saw it struggling to recover. On the week ahead, we have US ISM Manufacturing PMI, which stood at the levels of 55.9 in December. A rise to 56.5 is expected, which if reached will indicate string economy and growth, which could burden EUR/USD.

Demand for higher karat gold has taken an upward turn across the GCC during the past nine months, according to website search trend data from SEMrush, the leading award winning online digital marketing suite.

Currencies

Heikin Ashi suggest exhaustion in downtrend

Australian economic data has been tending to outperform relative to economists’ expectations. A similar outcome here could increase RBA rate hike bets. At the moment, overnight index swaps are pricing in a better than even chance of 55.1 percent that the central bank will raise rates in July 2019. The following week offers a plethora of event risk for the Aussie Dollar and we shall begin with domestic ones. On Wednesday, Australia’s second quarter inflation report will cross the wires.

Currencies

End of QE bullish for Euro

The European Central Bank has confirmed it is ending its huge net asset purchase programme to stimulate the eurozone economy this month. The ECB has stopped its bond-buying scheme, worth €30bn a month, despite a recent slowdown in the bloc's recovery. The move, first announced in June, is a big step towards unwinding the policies brought in to stabilise the eurozone in the wake of the financial crisis. Updated ECB projections published Thursday showed the economy continuing to expand, albeit at a slightly slower pace than previously expected. End of QE as well as economic growth, even if at lower rate should be supportive of Euro against USD.

The United Kingdom has voted to leave the European Union in a vote that was given this comment by the Financial Times: "Biggest jolt since the fall of the Berlin Wall. This puts 70 years of EU integration into reverse". 

Commodities have outperformed other classes so far this year. Rising oil prices have steadily been feeding into an increase in headline inflation. These developments together with increased geopolitical and weather concerns have all helped support investor demand for broad-based commodities exposure.

Commodities traded lower during a week where most of the attention was focused on the August 26 speech by Fed chair Janet Yellen. The annual economic symposium at Jackson Hole – the Davos for central bankers – has in past been used to signal major initiatives by the US Federal Reserve.

All commodity sectors, apart from grains, are back in demand following the Brexit vote on June 23. Record low bond yields on the back of raised speculation about renewed central bank action supported metals of all colors. Sugar and coffee found support in Brazil while oil settled down after the initial squeeze and natural gas surged on improved fundamentals. 

Market activity has increasingly been dictated or distracted by the uncertainty surrounding the UK referendum vote on June 23. Opinion polls indicating rising support for the Leave camp sent investors looking for cover with stocks falling and bonds rising.

It has been another crazy week on the political and financial market front. Donald Trump's unexpected win on Tuesday sent shockwaves across global markets with everything from currencies and stocks to commodities and particularly bonds trying to work out what the future now holds.

Two weeks of steep losses have seen the Bloomberg Commodity Index once again trade close to a one-year low. All sectors apart from precious metals suffered losses this past week, not least energy and soft commodities.

The Bloomberg Commodity Index traded lower for a third consecutive week with major commodities such as crude oil, gold, and copper stuck within relatively narrow ranges. Market jitters ahead of a near-certain sixth US rate hike (in this current cycle) on March 21, together with multiple geopolitical risks and political uncertainty in Washington, have sapped investor demand.

Commodities traded lower this past week with losses being led by the energy sector while both the metals and agriculture sectors were mixed. Impacting commodities both directly and indirectly were the unfolding political crises in both Spain and Italy, together with Donald Trump’s decision to slap duties on imports of steel and aluminium from US allies while also preparing a range of tariffs on goods from China.

Dubai Gold and Jewellery Group (DGJG) announced their mega jewellery promotion for the 22^nd edition of Dubai Shopping Festival, which will run from December 26 2016 to January 28 2017 under the slogan ‘Shop. Win. Celebrate’. Unveiling the promotion at a press conference held at Conrad Dubai Hotel, Mr. Tawhid Abdullah, Chairman, Dubai Gold & Jewellery Group (DGJG) said that in this edition of DSF, gold buyers stand a chance to win up to 34 kilos of gold in 34 days.

Under the patronage of Dubai Gold and Jewellery Group (DGJG), the gold & jewellery sector has announced the first of its kind collective promotion – My Jewellery Season, which will run from 8 June 2018 to 8 July 2018. DGJG is going beyond the usual promotional activities this year and introducing campaigns that will connect with the jewellery buyers outside of the popular shopping festivals in Dubai.

Currencies

GBP/USD rallied on Friday at support

The Cable rallied a bit during the trading session on Friday, using the 1.40 level as support. The dollar lost ground on Friday and gave up its gains on the back of weak US Jobs report data. The US economy added 103,000 jobs in March well shy of market expectations of 188,000 which caused the dollar bears to return to market. A move above the 1.41 level should send this market to the 1.4250 level. The economic calendar will remain fairly light for the GBP in the coming week, while for the dollar, the CPI is due on Wednesday along with the FOMC meeting.